The Energy-Efficient Development of the Russian Federation Entity: Models and Information Technologies

Abstract: In the article, the task of the energy-efficient development of the region is reduced to search for coordinated scenarios for the development of the regional economy and fuel and energy complex (FEC), in which the maximum approach to the objectives for a comprehensive system of indicators is achieved. This system of indicators contains: economic indicators characterizing the regional growth of human welfare and the potential of the regional economy, as well as energy indicators characterizing the efficiency of production processes, processing, transportation and the use of all types of fuel and energy resources in the region. The authors developed a dynamic multi-sector model of the fuel and energy complex as part of the economic model of the Russian Federation region and proposed the methodology that ensures approval and iterative coordination of scenario forecasts of energy consumption and production of energy resources in the region by main types of fuel and energy resources. To assess the achievement of the objectives of the energy-efficient development of the region of the Russian Federation, the authors developed methods and algorithms that make it possible to solve the tasks of multiobjective management of the regional economy and he fuel and energy complex for many dozen objectives and hundreds of control variables. Based on the methods and models presented in the article, information technology for forecasting and strategic planning is implemented in the form of the forecasting and analytical system designed to support management decisions of regional authorities in the tasks of increasing energy efficiency and energy security of the Russian Federation entity. The developed tools were calibrated on the statistical material of the Samara region.