Modeling Water Management Options for the Tigris–Euphrates Rivershed

Abstract: Political instability of several countries in the Middle East is overshadowing one of the biggest challenges of the upcoming century: Water - a natural resource that is easily taken for granted, but whose scarcity might lead to serious conflicts. This paper investigates an optimalWater Allocation of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivershed by introducing the WATER-Model. A series of scenarios are analyzed to examine the effects of different levels of cooperation. Basin-wide coordinated water usage becomes even more important in times of water shortages which can be caused by a drought or by the filling of a dam. Data analysis shows that Turkey is most efficient in its water usage. However, water usage for irrigation purposes in Turkey rather than for the domestic and industrial sectors of Iraq or Syria, decreases the overall welfare. The predicted water demand growth in the region will only increase this effect. Especially the Euphrates basin might thus encounter losses of up to 33% due to such non-cooperation. Minimum flow treaties between riparian countries, however, can help increase the region’s overall welfare and should therefore be implemented.