Unemployment and Indicators of its Assessment

ABSTRACT

The article presents a streaming model of unemployment, analyzes the scale of inflow and outflow into the category of unemployed, estimates the "reserve" (number of persons who retain the status of unemployed for more than three months), as well as their share in the total number of unemployed. The relevance of the study is determined by the need to monitor the labor market not only in the context of an economic downturn and to use for this new indicators characterizing unemployment. The aim of the work is to assess the state of the labor market based on the analysis of the flows of the unemployed. Calculations were made based on data from labor force surveys of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation for 1999-2019. During the period under review, the Russian labor market demonstrated some instability, despite the decline in the unemployment rate. The inflow and outflow from the unemployed category is quite intensive, but the decline in the share of those who retained the status of the unemployed is replaced by an increase in this indicator. The most stable state of the labor market was observed in 2012, when the share of the “stock” of the unemployed in their total number decreased by 13.2% compared to the previous year. A significant increase in the share of the unemployed who retained their status in 2015 was associated with a sharp reduction in outflow and testifies to the growth of tension in the labor market. An analysis of the flows of unemployed by age showed that persons under the age of 30 make up almost half of the inflow into the unemployed category, but the duration of job search here is shorter, which mitigates the problem of youth unemployment.

KEYWORDS

labor market, unemployment, valuation, flow model, duration of job search, unemployment risk.

Cite this paper

Ashkhen M. Nanavyan. (2021) Unemployment and Indicators of its Assessment. International Journal of Economics and Management Systems, 6, 112-118